Alabama Closely Monitoring Possible Tropical Depression Formation

As we move into the prime hurricane season months of August, September, and October, The Townsquare Media Weather Center will closely monitor conditions. We are paying attention to a tropical wave with a 60 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days.

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Tropical Wave Position

A well-defined tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, generating a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms currently impacting the Leeward Islands, the US and UK Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

This early in the development stage, models will be somewhat inconsistent. It is tough to forecast 7 to 10 in advance for the magnitude and track of a system.

According to The Weather Channel, “Its potential impact to the U.S. East or Gulf coasts remains uncertain, assuming it develops at all.”

Possible Formation

“A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week when the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, or near Florida,” said The National Hurricane Center.

Over the next few days, the track and details will align, providing more insight. Until then, it is a scenario wild card. - Mary K. Weather Forecaster

Possible Scenarios from The Weather Channel

I​t develops but curves sharply north, then northeast, keeping it away from the U.S. East Coast.

I​t develops and brushes or strikes parts of the East Coast from Florida northward to the Carolinas.

I​t develops, but in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

It doesn't develop at all. Even if that happens, the system could bring a surge of moisture that enhances rainfall in parts of the Southeast U.S.