NOAA Releases 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Hurricane season kicks into full gear starting on June 1 and lasting through November 30.

Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a quieter-than-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026. NOAA gives a 55% chance of a below-normal activity, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

NOAA 2026 Forecasting Outlook

• NOAA forecasts 8 to 14 named storms with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher
• Of those storms, 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher
• 1 to 3 major hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane status, with category 3, 4, or 5 winds of 111 mph or higher.
• NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces:

• 14 Named Storms
• 7 Hurricanes
• 3 Major Hurricanes

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

Factors Influencing NOAA's Forecast

A mix of atmospheric and oceanic conditions is expected to keep the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season quieter than average. Forecasters anticipate the development and strengthening of El Niño during the season, a pattern that typically suppresses tropical storm and hurricane formation.

At the same time, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal, while trade winds are expected to be weaker than average, both factors that can encourage storm development, lending support to NOAA’s current predictions.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”