Weather Channel Expert: Why El Niño Matters to Alabama This Hurricane Season

If this hurricane season feels a tad bit quieter this year, you’re not imagining it.  When Colorado State University issued its Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast in April 2026, researchers predicted 13 Named Storms. That was reduced to 11 in June, and now, the current and final outlook is for 9.

To compare to other sources, The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, “issued on July 16, forecast 10 tropical storms, four hurricanes, and one hurricane that reaches at least Category 3 strength.”

Whereas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in their updated August Outlook, “indicates a 75% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.” Their May outlook called for “8 to 14 named storms and is now calling for 7 to 13."

Get our free mobile app

But why?

The quick answer is El Niño.

El Niño is the biggest factor in determining how active the hurricane season will be this year. Scott Lawrimore, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel, said that “what we're seeing with El Niño, and a very strong El Niño, that's really started to kick in across the equatorial Pacific, is warm ocean temperatures all across the Pacific, and it's huge. It goes from South America all the way into the Western Pacific, a big plume of warm ocean temperatures."

"What that does to the pressure systems is make them very active in the Pacific, and in a sense, over on the Atlantic side of things, the Atlantic tries to compensate. And what ends up happening is we have too much wind shear.”

Listen to the Full Exclusive Interview with The Weather Channel - Scott Lawrimore

Regardless of the decrease in expected hurricanes, meteorologists and forecasters encourage those living in hurricane-prone and adjacent areas to continue to monitor the season. It truly takes one hurricane, regardless of predictions, to make an impact.