Kendrick Lamar Is Nominated for 11 Grammys; How Many Will He Actually Win?

Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp A Butterfly was easily the most talked about rap album of 2015—and it was also the most polarizing. Was it brilliant? (The answer is, yes.) Or was it a piece of work so avant garde that it's "unrelatable?" (The answer is no.)

A 16-track social-political protest of sorts, consisting of intelligent, sometimes soul-questioning musings of a young dude from Compton struggling with notions of racism, right and wrong, celebrity and spirituality, TPAB was unlike anything else released last year. And it could be argued that even though it’s barely a year old, it already occupies an important space in hip-hop’s musical canon.

Which is why it’s so surprising that it was nominated for 11 Grammys.

After all, the musical institution isn’t exactly known for being in touch, particularly as it pertains to hip-hop music. Maybe they took a cue from President Obama, who dubbed “How Much a Dollar Cost” his fav jam of the year. Whatever. Kendrick has now topped Eminem as the hip-hop artist with the most Grammy nominations in a single year and falls only one shy of Michael Jackson’s nomination record.

But the real question here is-- how many will he actually win? Let’s break his 11 nominations down, shall we?

Album of the Year: To Pimp A Butterfly
Will He Win? Nope.
Who Will Win?: Taylor Swift, 1989
Should He win? This is surprisingly a very, very strong category. You have Alabama Shakes’ spectacular, if not genre-defining, Sound and Color (God bless Brittany Howard’s pipes), country singer Chris Stapleton’s supreme writing chops coming to play on his long-awaited soulful debut, Traveller and The Weeknd showcasing his alt-pop/R&B skills in all of his 50 Shades glory on Beauty Behind the Madness.

The pickings weren’t exactly slim here. But the truth is, although all of these albums Sound and Color and Traveller have supreme replay value, none broke the mold the way TPAB did. It’s arguably the most immaculately produced rap album since Kanye West’s My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy. Lyrically, it’s part angry protest, part troubled introspection, but always superior. And as a concept album (which continues over from his outstanding major label debut, good kid, m.a.a.d. city, its parts never outshine the sum. We'll be talking about this album years from now. In short, yes, he should win.

Best Music Video: “Alright”
Will He Win? Yes.
Should He Win? Yes. Although his collaboration with Taylor Swift on “Bad Blood” featured a bunch of badass women doing badass things with swords and motorcycles, the political climate calls for “Alright” to get a win.

Best Music Video: “Bad Blood” Taylor Swift featuring Kendrick Lamar
(See Above)

Best Rap Album: To Pimp A Butterfly
Will He Win? Yes.
Should He Win? Uh, hell yes. Drake, J. Cole, Nicki Minaj and Dr. Dre show up in this category too but... nah. TPAB is easily head and shoulders above the rest.

Best Rap Song: “Alright”
Will He Win? Yes.
Should He Win? Yes. Although Common and John Legend show up here with their tragic collaboration “Glory” from Selma, “Alright” wins the people’s vote for most righteous song. Also, it doesn’t suck.

Best Rap Song: “All Day”
(See Above)

Best Rap/Sung Collaboration: “These Walls”
Will He Win? No.
Who Will Win? This will probably go to John Legend and Common for “Glory”, sadly.
Should He Win? Undecided. Technically, “These Walls” is a better song than Jidenna’s “Classic Man” featuring Roman GianArthur. The production is richer and Bilal, who is vocally one of the best in the business, and Ana Wise blend seamlessly together on this song, never overpowering the intended groove. But “Classic Man” with all of its catchiness jams and delivers a subtly cool message to boot.

Best Rap Performance: “Alright”
Will He Win? Yes.
Should He Win? Yes. Although Fetty Wap’s “Trap Queen” was a hit, this one goes to K.Dot.

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance: “Bad Blood”- Taylor Swift featuring Kendrick Lamar
Will He Win? No.
Should He Win? No. This will definitely be Taylor’s year but Bruno Mars and Mark Ronson's shout out to The Time, “Uptown Funk” wins this one.

Song Of The Year: “Alright”
Will He Win? No.
Who Will Win? Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”
Should He Win? Yes. A protest anthem from Philly to abroad that turns Sophia’s struggles from The Color Purple into sonic gold? How is that the song of the year?

Best Dance Recording: “Never Catch Me” - Flying Lotus featuring Kendrick Lamar
Will He Win? No.
Who Will Win? Probably “Where Are U Now” - Skrillex and Diplo featuring Justin Bieber
Should He Win? Yes, although, this song really should’ve been nominated in the Best Video category. Those two dancing kids killed it in the death-defying video.